Thursday, January 01, 2015

My Predictions For 2015.



























Look for very little change in 2015 as the increasingly unpopular Governor tries and fails to get his education agenda through the State Assembly despite linking it with the false "perv teacher" issue as they respond to parent and educator complaints of the Common Core tests, used in the teacher evaluation system, being poorly implemented and discriminatory. Moreover, I expect that NYSUT will initiate a lawsuit on the teacher evaluation system that will tie up the teacher dismissal process claiming the VAM is "junk Science',  now that the Governor reneged on his promise to not use the Common Core tests against the teachers for the two year period.  Finally, the New York State courts will rule against the education reformers on the teacher tenure issues.  However, the education reformers will continue to appeal and it wouldn't be settled until 2016 or even 2017, if even then as it works its way slowly to the State's highest court.

I suspect that the disappointing Chancellor, Carmen Farina, will resign at the end of the school year as she is criticized from all sides as she ineptly stumbles her way through one crisis after another, making all sides unhappy.  Hopefully, the Mayor will select an educator that doesn't suffer from "foot in mouth disease", who has never worked at Tweed and can really clean house of all the Bloomberg policymakers that fester there.  Under Carmen Farina, the DOE's bloated bureaucracy will continue to consume much needed resource from the schools and many incompetent "Leadership Academy Principals" will remain in place and that will result in terrible working conditions,  high teacher turnover, as well as poor student outcomes but then again, under the disappointing Chancellor, its not about the students as she is part of the problem and not the solution.  Look for only a marginal increase in already tight school budgets as Tweed still controls the money and will divert it to non-classroom uses. Chancellor Carmen Farina will continue many of the Bloomberg policies that hurt student academic outcomes, such as large class sizes, school budgeting, using the fair student funding, and paying for over a thousand experienced teachers without a classroom while encouraging principals to hire the cheapest and not the best teachers for their schools in their "education on the cheap" policy.

I expect our disconnected union leaders will continue with their neglect of the rank and file and when some of the ATRs are terminated for frivolous infractions or fail to show up for mandatory interviews, they will simply shrug their collective shoulders and continue to close their eyes to the abuses that teachers suffer in the schools.  As long as they get the member dues, they will ignore the many issues that school staff have to put up with.  Be it vindictive principles, unpaid extra work requirements, the large amount of unnecessary paperwork, or the use of uncertified people teaching a subject. Will a real dissent movement take root and shake up the dictatorial Unity leadership?  I hope so but not confident for it happening in 2015.

The hostile classroom environment will remain essentially unchanged as the good feelings between
the Chancellor and our union leadership does not make it down to the schools as vindictive administrators still take their cues from the bloated DOE Bureaucracy at Tweed and look to use the Danielson framework to punitively rate teachers and when these administrators are identified and exposed, the Chancellor and our union President ignores the problem.  With changes to the student discipline code, the classroom will experience more behaviorally challenged students who know there will be little or no consequences for their actions, making teaching a living hell in hard to staff schools and I strongly expect an even higher teacher turnover in these schools. That's why if you teach in Queens at the high school level please see my list on "Schools to avoid".

The only silver lining I see for 2015 is that we all get a 3% raise in May and receive 12.5% of our retroactive raises in October, assuming you don't resign, get terminated, or die before then.


39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ahhhh yes Chaz. For me, another year down and a simple decade to go. At 45 years old with 23 years in (yes, that's correct as I was very young starting at 22), another quick 10 years is a cakewalk! At 55 I'm OUT! Something to look forward to:
At 55, my pension percentage will be 64.5%. In 2021 I will have completed 3 consecutive years at about 120K which will be the minimum top salary (if not higher). Who knows, maybe the salary will increase to about 130K by 2022, leaving me 3 consecutive years till retirement by 2025 at 130K. Throw in my 15K in per session (summer school, tutoring, coaching) and I'm looking at 645% of about 145K.
Let's see, this is about $94,000.00 per year for the rest of my life!!!!
Happy New Year. 10 years to go Chaz. NO PROBLEM!

Philip Nobile said...

Chaz, call me crazy but I have a funny feeling that Farina will resign in disgrace after her criminal role in the cover-up of the notorious Cobble Hill Regents tampering case is finally reported in the press. SCI boss Richard Condon will also be forced out for fixing his review that corruptly exonerated Farina and several other DOE officials. You may agree after reading "The Carmen Farina Nobody Knows" on scribd.

Anonymous said...

Whether you realize it or not you're a marked man. You're much too expensive. We'll see to it you're put into the ATR pool at the end of June. We will then let you languish there for three years, then terminate you for any reason we feel like.
You'll never make 10 years, unless you have a strong union and we know the answer to that.

Bronx ATR said...

Look for Cuomo to try to gain complete control of NYC schools as DeB is being portrayed as weak and incompetent. This of course will be done via major inputs of funds from those who want privatize the schools in order to milk them like the cash cows they are. Time for some concerted effort from Mike and Randi!

Anonymous said...

I predict Farina will retire again by June-and those CFN networks will be gone-probably replaced by geographically district aligned networks. Also, Bratton will leave the NYPD by springtime-as his relationship with Deblasio will crumble to the point of no return.

Anonymous said...

Unbelievable!

Anonymous said...

Hi Anon 4:19. Sorry you're a miserable person, especially on the first day of a new year. ATR for me? Don't think so. I'm the #1 senior teacher within a Science department of 8 total. You know the rules!!!!!! I guess there's a chance my principal (who loves me) can excess the 7 teachers under me and then excess me, leaving zero Science teachers within a school of close to 1000 students. Actually, you probably can't do that. Ha!!!! I hope your next comment isn't "Well, they will close your school to make you an ATR". Nope, my school has over an 85% grad rate sending students to big name colleges. We're not closing anytime soon. I will make the 10 years pretty much blindfolded.

Anonymous said...

Then we'll put you into the rubber room, fine you and make you an ATR. All it takes is one complaint and we know your salary. You're on borrowed time.

Anonymous said...

One more thing Anon 4:19, I'm not even a teacher. Just pretending the job's a cinch and the pension rocks. LOL in the New Year.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't be so smug if I were you. There is always the possibility that your principal who loves you so much could leave for a variety of reasons. Your A.P could be replaced and the current ap could target you because you are a total asshole.
There is always the possibility that your health will not last another decade.
It would be wise for you to keep your ugly selfish mouth closed.
It is morons like you that causes such outright hatred of teachers. If we were all as downright selfish and narcissistic as you it would be richly deserved.
Fortunately most teachers are nothing like you.
May you get what you deserve.
Sincerely,
Angry Nog

Anonymous said...

Hey Anon 6:53
Your smugness prevents you from seeing the big picture as well as the obvious writing on the wall. Our collective power that should be our union has been eroded to the point where even you cannot seriously believe you're safe from the telegraphed onslaught Cuomo and his hedge fund privatizer buddies have planned for NYC public schools. My guess is you haven't been paying attention!

Anonymous said...

Angry Nog - like I said, I'm not even a teacher. Keepin' off of that gravy train. But living the fantasy it's a gig I could do blindfolded . For sure.

Anonymous said...

Yes, 11:01, it's been brought to our attention that your eyes linger a little too long over the students posteriors as they're leaving class. Our crack team has gotten to the bottom of this allegation. The next senior teacher in your license rotation has confirmed it. Please report to 1 Fordham Plaza on Monday. LOL (I'm 419 and 823)

Anonymous said...

Your comments make the public hate us. Not cool.

Anonymous said...

Mike and Randi are exerting plenty of effort to assist Cuomo in implementing his Break the Public School Monopoly Agenda,

Anonymous said...

Similar to 11:01, it is the amazing pension I will receive at age 55 with 31 years in the system....that keeps me going every day. I'm halfway there.

11:01 failed to mention another sweet incentive for teachers to hang in there. Our TDA that keeps growing and growing with a 7% return. For MANY, it is quite easy to accumulate a quarter million dollars over the course of a 30 + year career.

Pension + TDA = living like a king in Florida from age 55 and on. A king!!!

NYPD, NYFD, DSNY, MTA, USPS --- NO ONE has it as GREAT as NYC DOE teachers!!

Anonymous said...

You know what's sad? You're writing things that do not make sense. Cuomo has tried and failed. He will try again. Then, again and again. His dumb ideas and pushes will never ever pass legislation. Got it? His ideas and agendas are just words. Why are you choosing to believe his word is law? You are "scaring" the public as well. Legislation will not pass his initiatives, ESPECIALLY as he is basically losing the public confidence and his approval rating is plummeting. He's basically a lame duck in his final term as governor. His agendas will not pass.

Anonymous said...

Hey buddy, this is Anon 11:01. Great to see another employee like myself. Yes, you're correct with your comment about TDA. How could u forget that??? My fault! Florida huh? Might have to join you. We are KINGS!!!!! One additional comment on my end would be that I'm in Variable A (not fixed) so I've actually been getting 26%, 28% etc over the past few years. My TDA is already over 250K and will easily skyrocket more and more as the stock market is showing gains after gains after gains. I can't believe do many teachers on this blog and other blogs are consistently whining about bullcrap. My principal doesn't like me, my AP is mean, I have a target on my back, etc, etc, etc. Hey, SHIT UP and figure this game out already!!!! You can't imagine how happy you'd be if you just stepped back and realized how great it is. But you can't, you must complain and bitch and moan. SHUT UP and make your $$& and HUGE pension + TDA superscore. I am GOLDEN!!!! Hey 10:17, let's go get some drinks (on me of course since my TDA is killing your fixed rate). Let me know when and where in the Bronx. We can laugh about how great we got it and laugh harder about people who are STILL complaining.

Chaz said...

Enough! Some teachers are lucky enough to be in a good school with well behaved students and a supportive administration and I can see how they are happy with their job.

Unfortunately, many of us don't have that luxury and must try to survive until they can retire. I am included in this group and will continue to do my job until I retire in two years.

In my world its chaz one and the DOE zero and that;s how I survive.

Anonymous said...

Hey Anonymous 11:01

You again...?

Such a dim wit...your syntax gives you away again! Your posts prove you are a RUBE! Do you scream out your own name when you pleasure yourself?

Anonymous said...

Chaz

You've got a confused troll talking to himself/herself. Must be hitting a nerve with your predictions. Happy new year!

Bronx ATR said...

Hey 11:01,
If you're not a teacher, what's the point of writing all this nonsense?! The public read it and think it's actually from a teacher and hate us even more. Is that the point? Truth be told, if you were in the system you wouldn't make 10 weeks. 10 years and you'd have a neon bulls eye on your back. If you really are a teacher I'm happy things are good for you, but remember the universe punishes those who brag.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 11:01 is such a tool. This guy pleasures himself on a daily basis while reading his TRS Annual Report.

I know Anon 11:01, you're "too good to be excessed" you've made yourself "too valuable to your idiot AP".

Get over yourself.

ReadyToRetireNow said...

Just trolls talking crap again. Please do us a favor and REALLY get a teaching job. See for yourself if it is as "sweet" as you think. By the way, please tell us who hired you to troll. I'd like to make a few bucks spouting bs too.

Anonymous said...

2:02 & 2:56 are two of the most miserable teachers out there. Confused? How am I confused? My calculations are 100% correct. Not confused about anything 2:56. 33 years of service at 55 gives me 64.5%. No confusion here mr miserable. Hey Chaz, "You have a troll that seems confused". Uhhhh, nope, no confusion. Monster pension, can't be excessed, school never closing, you and 2:02 are miserable, where's the confusion? None here! I'm not too sure whose more miserable out if 2:02 & 2:56. I'm gonna say 2:02 because his ex-wife really got the best of him. 2:56 isn't as intelligent as 2:02 obviously. Chaz, you should have a separate link for miserable teachers to hook up in person. You can charge a fee. It can be a side gig for you. They can complain all night, drink, and bitch & moan about how everything sucks and how they should be valued more, etc. So funny!!!!!!!

ReadyToRetireNow said...

Monster pension? You mean like the ones CEO's make? Their yearly bonuses dwarf anything we could ever hope to receive. Can't be excessed? Tell that to the teachers whose schools are closed down - even if some did well despite the closings. When you resort to name-calling and insults, your argument loses even more merit. Again, join the ranks and see for youself just how "sweet" it is.

Anonymous said...

Chaz: After the troll admits he's/she's not really a teacher (9:31, 10:03), the confused troll talks back and forth to himself pretending to be two different teachers discovering each other in teacher fantasyland.
Something about your posts got him/her unhinged.
I agree that VAM is toast and Ms. Farina is on the way out.

Anonymous said...

The troll shifts from happy to angry. More evidence of his confusion (plus that self conversation 1101 and 1254 plus his quickly forgotten confession he's not really a teacher 931). That is precisely the sort of thinker who believes teachers are on the gravy train. Ahhhhh.

Anonymous said...

9:31 & 10:17 are not me. That individual claimed he/she is not a teacher. I am not that person. It is two separate people.
Anyway, ReadytoRetireNow indeed I feel my pension is nowhere near a CEO's, but I never said that. A CEO worked 15 hours a day, weekends, made tons of $$$ but had no family life. I preferred making the $$$ I make while enjoying my personal life. I'd choose a teacher pension over working as a CEO for years and years, anytime. To me, it is a monster pension. Not to many CEO's are enjoying a 12 day X-mas break, a week off in February, 10 days in April, plenty of scattered holidays here and there, and that other thing ............ 2 months summer vacation. Throw in 10 sick days per year and you've gotta be joking that a CEO job is better. It's an overall monster civil service career with tons of benefits that private sector workers wish they had.
I'm just very lucky to be making a nice amount of $$$ with incredible benefits just like you guys. The difference is that a lot if posters on here seem to be ultra upset. Maybe I never had the unfortunate scenario of working for horrid supervisors or in a school with terrible students. If some years were a bit tough, I made the best if it. If an administrator was like the ones you guys describe at your school, I'm sure if find a way to make some type of relationship out of it.
Happy New Year everyone. Chaz, might be great if you did a piece on Cuomo. Plenty of readers on here seem to think he will destroy the teachers, etc, etc. They are misinformed as you probably are well aware that Cuomo is at the lowest point as a governor ever. The legislators despise him and there's no way any type of law is being passed. The legislators won't be helping him at all. People on here and elsewhere need to understand that Cuomo has plenty of enemies. His agendas are simply ideas with no chances. Prediction: Nothing is passed by the legislation in regards to teachers and evaluations. The Danielson framework sunsets in 2 years. It will not be renewed. Common Core will be stripped at that time as well. Things are on an upswing from here.

Anonymous said...

Ahhhh Chaz. 9:47 is not me. I am not 9:31 but I am 6:08 and 12:34. I am living like a king and 10 short years from now I'll be living like an Emperor . You should write a column on how royalty could meet up, now that would be a hoot. Stop whining and write columns on topics I would enjoy reading about. I would do it myself but I am on my yacht living the fantasy teacher life. You could write about that too instead of whining all the time.

Anonymous said...

anonymous 12:01 is confused. all i hear is a person waiting for 10 years to quickly disappear so he can live life like a king or royalty or whatever that is. really pathetic. hope all works out but lots can happen in ten years. i suspect you may want to have some fun in those ten years so you're not a miserable slob at 55 on a ledge. stop denigrating others via anonymous blog sites. your lack of self awareness, your situation, your career and life is just sad.

Chaz said...

In a decade, your school could suffer from bad administrators via the Leadership Academy, or the school population changes for the worse, and it only takes one student and his or her friend to accuse you of misconduct and end up with a corrupt SCI or OSI investigation.

Hopefully, you will never experience that but it could happen.

Anonymous said...

I've seen comments from some teachers -(especially from anon:11:01) that they are counting days, years etc.-- till they retire and have something to look forward too. I wish nothing but good health to both future and current retirees. However, I hope our actual future/current pensions- continue to have good health as well. I hear threats about teacher pensions only-- coming from Cuomo and once again from the NY Post-claiming that all public pensions are too expensive-even in these days of a robust and stronger economy-compared to the 2009 warnings. So for 2015, the battle will not only continue against Cuomo and the reformers over teacher evaluations, tenure, charters etc.-but now expect a renewed and more important fight over pension rights/payments that could even make Tier 6 look like great deal.

Anonymous said...

Other prediction for 2015

Chaz will write the following:

20 posts on fair student funding (id actually take the over)
12 posts on our chancellor who inherited a mess
30 posts on leadership principals (he doesnt like when we lump atrs together but its acceptable to do it to another group)
1 disturbing photo comparing atrs to being in a concentration camp.
30 posts on how bad our contract is

Write something new already or at least give us info we dont know.

Chaz said...

Anon 5:31

And we can always count on you never saying anything relevant or important.

Anonymous said...

Chaz, the guy is a jerk and he has no creditability. You write about a wide range of issues and your pension and benefits analysis is right on target.

Anonymous said...

Chaz: It seems your confused and sometimes angry troll is disturbed by the focus of many of your posts. Not just this post. Clearly you have struck a nerve concerning the well-documented difficulties of teaching nowadays and he would like you to post happier thoughts. The obvious thought comes to mind that the troll could write a blog and post his own happy thoughts...but that is not the nature/purpose of trolls.

All of your predictions appear reasonable...the appetite of Gov. Cuomo to pander to the public by bashing teachers is insatiable. The recent Daily News suggestions on reducing current retiree pensions shows there is a public sentiment in the direction that Cuomo is pandering. For some, tier 5 and tier 6 'corrections' and 'savings' will not appear fast enough so it is time to raid current retirees.

Keep up the good work - when folks like the troll dislike your truths, you are on to something.

Bronx ATR said...

Only 1 school in the Bronx matches 11:01 stats -- Bronx Science HS.
11:01, Mayor DeB is planning on opening specialized schools up to students who can't pass the entrance test. Things will change very quickly for you if that happens. Personally, I hope it doesn't.

Anonymous said...

11:01

You better hope you don't get a new principal or you're a dead man