Wednesday, January 01, 2020
My Predictions For 2020
The education issues for 2020 are many and some of them are complicated. Here is my best guess.
Chancellor Carranza would like to integrate the public schools and despite some limited success in certain school districts like District 15 in Brooklyn and District 3 in Manhattan. Most of the Districts are either highly segregated or resistant like District 28 in Queens. I expect little progress in integrating the NYC shools without causing large scale middle class flight and expensive busing to implement the Chancellor's wishful policy.
Mayor Bill de Blasio will probably not support lower class sizes unless the State fully funds the schoolz but with the State expecting a major budget shortfall of 6.1 billion dollars, the Mayor will shortchange the schools by only funding them at 90%. The result is that class sizes will continue to be the largest in New York State.
Fair Student Funding:
I don't expect the DOE to eliminate school based fair student funding since many of the Bloomberg holdovers remain in policy making positions, despite some small changes by Chancellor Carranza..
Look for the ATR pool to continue at current levels as a result of the fair student funding and hiring practices that discriminate against veteran teachers. I also do not expect an ATR buyout this year. The DOE pilot program that allows the worst schools to hire an ATR without being charged might be expanded to other terrible schools that no self respecting ATR would accept.
The Open Market Transfer Syste:
I believe that the Open Market Transfer System will remain unchanged and only non tenured teachers will be offered positions as principals will not hire veteran teachers due to their salary.
I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.: